And now for a little analysis for todays ground changing deal. The deal was Ottawa sending fan favourite Mike fisher to Nashville for a 1st round this year and a conditional pick next year depending on how he fares with the team.

I'm very surprised. All my colleagues at work here in Ottawa will be devastated but I honestly did not expect the Sens to get this much for him. Given that they should be headed to rebuild road, this is a phenomenal deal for them and for once I have to congratulate them on pulling something off for once.

So what does tis mean and why did both teams win here? Fisher is making 4.5 million a season which is a bit overpaid since he probably should make around 3.5-4 so Ottawa was lucky to find any takers. They manage to dump salary and get back a huge first rounder to help with the rebuilding process. And with rebuilding, at 30 he's in the middle of his prime but won't factor into the future plans. He plays a physical style much like Micheal Peca for example, but has been lucky in not being hurt overly much if at all. You know that the style of play will take its toll and like Peca he'll start to break down in the next 4 or 5 years, so it was in Ottawa's best interests longterm to sell high if a deal was met for what they were looking for.

The physical element that Fisher brings will be a great asset to Nashville, along with his experience, especially in playoff situations (07 finals with Ottawa). They made a balsy move but one that will give them a good shot at going deep in the playoffs by adding to their depth since he clearly replaces Jason Arnott who left last summer.

Now a lot of people are devastated here in Ottawa. Fisher is a fan favourite and many are wondering why they didn't dump guys like Gonchar and Kovalev before moving him. The fact is, they can't get rid of Gonchar or Kovalev. Both are too old, paid way too much and contribute too little. Fisher may be a fan favourite, but they have to make a move in the best interest of the club, not necessarily the fans. Yes the fans are the reason your in business and all, but if you ask any fan who they like more, their favourite player on their favourite team, or being a contender every year and maybe even winning the Cup. Most fans will say the team winning since one player doesn't make a team in the NHL. But this is exactly like with Toronto in the early 1990's. leaf fans didn't want to trade Wendel Clark since he was a fan favourite. But the team sold high  and moved him despite the fans wishes. The fans were mad for awhile, but what helped was getting Mats Sundin on the deal, which over the long term they clearly won. Wendel ended up being solid after the deal but clearly was starting to decline. Fisher will always be a fan favourite for what he did during his time here, but he simply won't be fitting into their long-term plans moving forward, especially when they are offered a huge piece of the rebuilding puzzle.


Now I know there is a lot of anger amongst the fans in Ottawa already and it's probably going to escalate as time moves forward from this deal. I have already heard from some of my own co-workers even about how they want Bryan Murray to be fired and they won't be buying any more tickets or going to the games. To me I think this is incredibly stupid and shows how stupid Ottawa fans have become.
Now I am going to agree, that GM Bryan Murray should be fired. He should have been fired 3 years ago when he wouldn't handle the situation with Emery which is the root cause of all of this team's problems as they've spiralled out of control. But lets face facts, he's not coming back at the end of the season as the GM and frankly, this is the first bit of sense the man has made in years. For me it comes down to this. The fans were stupid enough to keep going to the games with this idea that the Sens went to the final in 07, so this team, being roughly the same, should be able to go back again. 3 years later things have gotten progressively worse, yet no one called for anyone's head, and everyone still piled into the arena with this stupid belief that they were elite. In other words they've spent 3 years ignoring the problems and issues that keep plaguing this team. If they'd (Sens management) have done something about this 3 years ago, they would have had an off season in 2008 and been back in contention since then by doing a mini renovation. But instead they ignored it and now they will have to spend 3-5 years most likely rebuilding. So the fans have no one to blame but themselves and by not going to games now are nothing more than fair weather fans. To take it a step further, by not bothering with resigning Alfredsson's contract for $4 million per over 4 season and trading him for a 1st rounder to Detroit (rumoured to have been the offer at the trade deadline a year and a half ago) they would have unloaded his contract and brought in a major part of the renovation process and Fisher wouldn't be going anywhere now. However fans wouldn't stomach that either as they are under an illusion Daniel is still 28 and able to get 90+ points a year. They failed to sell high on Alfredsson but I'll give Sens management credit for learning from their mistakes and selling high on Fisher during their next go around.

Q - With the trade deadline approaching, some top teams will want to stock up on talent to make a serious run for the Stanley Cup. Which veterans can the Ottawa Senators trade and what potential prospects can they hope to get in return?


A - I have some thoughts on this. Some are shocking to Sens fans, but at the end of the day its time to face it up, this team isn't winning anything other than a draft lottery pick - it's time to rebuild.

First of all, they should either try to move or demote Kovalev. I'd waive him to wipe his $5 mill of the books (he's done in 6 months anyway). This could help you have money to bring in a trade (for example, a player for a prospect and Commodore in Columbus - they deal a high salary off, and you buy him out in the off season and it becomes a player for prospect deal).

Leclaire is a bust and since he's done this year, either dangle him for whatever you can get or run the clock this year and let him walk as a UFA.

Make a call on Phillips - If you keep him, you know what you'll get out of him, but run the risk he'll walk as a UFA in July. Ultimately I'd try moving him as he will have value and you can pick up a prospect or maybe a 2nd/3rd rounder and clear $3.5 mill at the same time (use that money to sign someone in the off season or re-up Karlsson). After all, he's not helping you to the finals this year.

Trade Alfie - This will probably get me killed if I leave my house but he's past his prime (even if there is a touch left in the tank) and he's not leading this team to another cup (unless its behind the bench or in the front office somewhere). Move him and his high salary while you can still get anything for him from a contender. Let's face it, this team needs to re-up and he's a trade-able asset.

Move Fisher if you have the right deal and he's willing to waive his NTC. He's a great player and an excellent number 2 C, but if you get the right deal (Ryan Ellis from Nashville for example), then I'd pull the trigger. It would be easy enough to patch that hole with a UFA signing or by bringing someone up like Zack Smith.

Keep Cowen as he is going to be apart of the future core with Karlsson (sort of like when Phillips and Redden came up together in the late 90s and provided the core after they added guys like Chara and Berard). Same with Campoli as I think he is better than what he is playing, however given where he is on the depth chart I think his low ranking has something to do with it.

Move Gonchar IF you can. With his salary, declining play, absent defense and the fact that he would be a liability if he retires (cap hit would stick regardless if he plays or not) it will be hard if at all possible to move him. Let's remember that in Pittsburgh, the talent around him hid the problems with his game and being in Ottawa has exposed them which will hurt his value. Maybe you get someone who is desperate and gambling on his shot at bumping them either into the play offs or just tipping the scales to make them a contender. Try the same with both Chris Kelly and Filip Kuba if you can as well.

If you can get something equal for Spezza, I say take it. His soft defensive play, high salary and declining point totals make him worthwhile to get shipped out. He'd be amazing if they actually brought in a coach who would hold him to his laziness and holes in his game, if that could ever happen. On the other hand he is talented enough to be a legit number 1 centre in the league and they don't grow on trees. If you can get a top prospect (Seguin or Hall for example) then sure, go for it, other wise sit on him and try to turn things around.

Keep Milan Michalek as his value right now is too low to make it worth while and I think he's having a rough go while still recovering from his last injury. He is a great plug in the top two lines even if paid a touch more than he should have been (probably $3.5-4 mill a year is right).

I would probably run a tandem of Ellior and Mike Brodeur next year since these guys are more 1a types (not quite a starter by better than a backup) and would hold the fort until Remier is ready to take the starters job. Plus they will come cheap.

To say what they should get back, that really could be anything and everything. They need a better and more mobile defense core. Bieksa would be the first guy that comes to mind and is respectably paid which would make an immediate impact. That said they will need to bring in a few guys - 1 or 2 established NHLers and maybe 1 or 2 through promotion from the farm.

They need better wingers to play with the centres. Spezza has taken a nosedive since Heatley left town since Alfredsson is too old and slow, Kovalev only shows up for 1 in 4 games to play and Michalek has only had mild chemistry with him as well has lost a gear in his speed since his knee injury. Someone they may want to target here is Devin Setoguchin in SJ. SJ needs a defensive D (maybe Philips) and Ottawa maybe where Devin can re-energize and find his game again.
They have average depth on the back two lines where I would probably hold onto Neil and Ruutu (both crowd favourites, decently priced and do a reasonable job). I look to a team like Pittsburgh who spent the last 3 years collecting grinders, fighters, role players and other 3rd and 4th line players. Many think that it is stupid, but this is the depth that makes them difficult to play against, as well as go the distance through 82 games and a full cup run. Vancouver has done the exact same thing this year when guys like Manny Malhotra where signed (his face off percentage is also a huge bonus). It's time to emulate the successes of other so either grab some depth at the deadline or on July 1st.

Lastly, fire Bryan Murray! This guy has been the biggest overall problem to the team as he's shown nothing but desperation and rolling the dice on a lot of the moves he has made in the last 2 years. I believe these moves have brought this team nothing and probably made them worse which is why they are in the situation today. With that consider firing Clouston as well. I think he's a good coach, but has lost the confidence of the players. Maybe you can turn it around next season with him if there is a turnover of the core guys in the next 8 months, but that would be the only situation.

Since this is my inaugural post, I felt it made sense to bring up something that's been bothering me for awhile about the hometown Sens - Bryan Murray.

I have never seen someone make such rash desperation moves to keep their job than I have in the last 2 years of his management. It became especially apparent in the Danny Heatley debacle where clearly, someone in his front office leaked this story to the press, causing the whole to-do around here in the first place.
That said, I think this has been a sinking ship since the 07 cup run and it will only be getting worse as time moves forward. Murray has done clearly little to reverse the teams fortunes with the exception being promoting coach Cory Clouston.
Take for example how Murray has been doing everything short of literally getting down on his knees and begging his counterpart Scott Howson in Columbus to make a deal for Bryan Lee. Lee of course has done little to help raise his stock value in the last year playing very mediocre when he is in the lineup. Unfortunately for Bryan Murray is that he's the only one who hasn't yet figured out that no one wants Bryan Lee. Mr. Hoswon of course is probably still laughing after ripping off the Sens for the Vermette/Leclaire trade a couple years back where despite Leclaire's superior talent level, Columbus got the better player at the end of the day. Murray's next laughing point is his insistance to replace players that either were traded away or walked during the free agent period with overpriced veterans. Guys like Kovalev (who was signed to a $5 mill deal literally 2 months after his public benching in Montreal), Sergei Gonchar ($5 mll)who at 36 is not going to be getting any better (especially not his piss poor defence which is why the Pens took a pass on him) and even the lovable Daniel Alfredsson ($4.87 mll) who again at 38 on the 11th, is pretty much at the end of his rope. If I was in charge when he signed his last 4 year extension, I would have simply moved the guy to someone like the Red Wings (Reportedly were every interested at the time) for a couple draft picks since that was the highest his stock would have gotten, but I digress. Combined this group of 35+ makes just under $15 million or around a quarter of the overall cap hit this season. And considering that if anyone of these 3 were to retire randomly, the cap hits would continue for the duration of the contracts as they were over that magical age of 36 when they signed up. Sure that is likely not going to happen, but its a hell of a liability to have sitting around as a possible, much less than at least two of the three are arguably drastically overpaid.
That leads me into the next point in part 2 - what does Bryan do from here?